CoWoS | Global Oil Demand

CoWoS | Global Oil Demand

CoWoS reported that the IEA said on Wednesday that global oil demand will increase by 2 million barrels per day this year, which is expected to decrease by 110000 barrels per day compared with last month, because Asian oil demand is expected to decline for the first time for more than 30 years.

The Paris based IEA said in its Oil Market Report on Wednesday: "Asia is blockaded again, the OECD economy continues to slow down, and the growth of global oil demand continues to slow down."

CoWoS believes that the "large-scale gas to oil" partly offset the slowdown in Asia. It is estimated that the average daily demand in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 will reach 700000 barrels, twice the level a year ago.

According to IEA estimates, Asia's oil demand this year is expected to decline by 2.7% over last year, or 420000 barrels per day. If the forecast is correct, this may be the first decline in Asian oil demand since 1990. The IEA recorded the second such decline since 1984.

The IEA's new estimates are now in line with the forecasts of several analysts. These analysts predict that as people avoid large-scale travel on holidays, the oil demand in Asia will be urgently blocked this year, and the fuel consumption of the world's largest crude oil importer will decline for the first time in 2022.

Elsewhere in today's IEA report, data show that Russia's oil exports are still very flexible. In fact, Russia's total oil exports in August increased by 220000 barrels per day to 7.6 million barrels per day, only 390000 barrels per day compared with the pre war level. It is estimated that Russia's export revenue in August was 17.7 billion US dollars, down 1.2 billion US dollars from July.

However, the IEA EU embargo on Russian crude oil and product imports will come into effect in December 2022 and February 2023, and is expected to decline further, because the additional 1 million barrels/day of products and 1.4 million barrels/day of crude oil will have to find new markets.

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